Paul George thread

Re: Paul George thread

Postby KobeMVP888 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:16 pm

KobeMVP888 wrote:


It's Randle or Clarkson and #27 and #28 in the draft.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby 3Peatkb24 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:42 pm

KobeMVP888 wrote:
KobeMVP888 wrote:


It's Randle or Clarkson and #27 and #28 in the draft.


Yeah you beat me to the punch, I got real busy today but that is what I have been hearing as well.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby Lakers4Life » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:31 pm

3Peatkb24 wrote:
KobeMVP888 wrote:
KobeMVP888 wrote:


It's Randle or Clarkson and #27 and #28 in the draft.


Yeah you beat me to the punch, I got real busy today but that is what I have been hearing as well.



I hope that that is enough!! (it should be. He'll walk in a year anyway)
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby 3Peatkb24 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:38 pm

Lakers4Life wrote:
3Peatkb24 wrote:
KobeMVP888 wrote:
KobeMVP888 wrote:


It's Randle or Clarkson and #27 and #28 in the draft.


Yeah you beat me to the punch, I got real busy today but that is what I have been hearing as well.



I hope that that is enough!! (it should be. He'll walk in a year anyway)


It may not be enough but the Pacers are backed into a corner. They may want Randle and Clarkson + 27 and 28 which I would still do that eventhough I would like to hold onto Randle. We still have Nance who can play the 4 if that does happen.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby Lakers4Life » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:43 pm

NBA INSIDER


What should the Los Angeles Lakers be willing to give up in a trade for Indiana Pacers All-Star Paul George?

Answering that question is complicated by the possibility that the Lakers will be able to sign George outright next summer, when he can become an unrestricted free agent. However, if the Lakers don't trade for George, another team almost certainly will make a deal with the Pacers, and the Lakers will then risk George's new team convincing him to re-sign with the promise of an extra year and slightly larger raises.

So, taking that all into account, what picks or players from their current roster should the Lakers be willing to offer?

The value of renting George

For most teams, determining George's trade value is simple: It's a matter of valuing his projected production and comparing that to his relatively small $19.5 million salary.

Based on his performance over the past three years in terms of my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistic and ESPN's real plus-minus, I project George to produce at an 11.4-win level as compared to replacement level in 2017-18, somewhere between the 13.4 WARP George produced in 2015-16 and his 10.1 WARP last season.

My current projection is that a win will cost about $3.2 million above the minimum salary in free agency this summer. Add in the minimum and that means George's production would be worth nearly $38 million, almost twice his salary. That makes George's surplus value worth $18.3 million. To put that in context, that's between the surplus value I estimate the 10th ($19.1 million) and 11th ($17.8 million) picks will provide their teams (over their first nine seasons).
Of course, that production isn't equally valuable to all teams. For the Cleveland Cavaliers, George could make the difference in competing against the Golden State Warriors in a fourth consecutive NBA Finals matchup.

For the Lakers, George would likewise help but the impact might seem less meaningful. After reportedly trading for Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez on Tuesday, the Lakers would have a realistic chance at making the playoffs if they added George. And if they look like a competitive team, the Lakers might be more appealing to other free agents (read: LeBron James) in the summer of 2018. But winning a playoff series next season probably isn't realistic.
Still, the main question the Lakers have to answer is how much it's worth to block George from getting traded elsewhere.

What's George worth on his next contract?

Projecting George's value beyond next season gets progressively more difficult because of uncertainty about his performance and future growth in the salary cap. Still, let's take a shot at it.
On average, the 28 players with a similarity score of at least 92.5 to George at the same age via my SCHOENE projection system declined by 0.7 WARP two seasons later. Applying that to George's projection puts his value for 2018-19, the first season of a new contract, at 10.7 wins above replacement.
Repeating that process over the full five-year contract the Lakers could offer George to re-sign if they acquired him now yields the following projections for his value:

Paul George's projected value
Season--WARP
2017-18
11.4
2018-19
10.7
2019-20
9.5
2020-21
8.0
2021-22
6.8
2022-23
6.4


By the end of a five-year deal, players similar to George saw their value decline nearly by half. For context, 10-plus WARP typically translates into an All-Star appearance. Meanwhile, George's projected production on the back half of his contract would be more typical of an average starter like Jonas Valanciunas (6.9 WARP in 2016-17).
Problematically, as George's production declines his salary will be increasing by almost $2.5 million per season if the Lakers offer full 8 percent raises to re-sign him. By the end of a five-year maximum deal, George would likely be making more than $40 million. (The exact figure depends where the 2018-19 salary cap is set.)

As a result, I project George to make about $14 million more than his statistical value in the fifth season of his contract if he re-signs with the Lakers. This is the strongest argument against trading for George. While the four-year max contract with 5 percent raises the Lakers could offer if he's on another team projects about neutral in terms of surplus value (a projected minus-$5.3 million over the life of the contract), I estimate George would provide nearly $25 million less value than the salary he would make on a five-year max.
Put in that context, the risk of giving George a five-year max is greater than the risk he re-signs with another team next summer.

Making an offer for George

So why trade for George at all? There are still a couple of cases for it. The first, as noted, is the possibility that having George on the books makes the Lakers a more desirable destination in 2018 free agency. Another, more subtle potential benefit is that George's cap hold as a free agent ($29.3 million) might end up less than his maximum salary (currently estimated at $30.6 million based on a projected $102 million salary cap), giving the Lakers a little extra cap space in the summer of 2018.

The last potential upside to a George trade is the possibility of shedding some bad contracts in the process. To match salaries with the Pacers -- necessary if a trade is completed prior to the end of the July moratorium -- the Lakers would almost certainly need to include either Jordan Clarkson or Luol Deng, who have significant negative surplus value (minus-$33 million for Deng and minus-$37 million for Clarkson).

Since the Lakers would need to move at least one of those salaries to make room for two max offers in the summer of 2018, including Clarkson or Deng in this trade would be a benefit to them. The same need to clear cap space implies the availability of Julius Randle, whose Bird rights as a restricted free agent the Lakers might have to renounce to make room for two max offers.

Ultimately, the most I'd be willing to offer in a George trade would be Clarkson or Deng, Randle, and the 27th and 28th picks in this year's draft. Brandon Ingram and this year's No. 2 pick would be off the table.
That might not be able to lpmua6 the best offer for George from a team intending to rent him, but given the potential downside of a five-year max deal for George, that's a risk I'd be willing to take.
Last edited by Lakers4Life on Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby Lakers4Life » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:44 pm

.....(for those who don't get ESPN Insider)
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby 3Peatkb24 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:01 pm

Pacers are wanting either the #2 or Ingram is what I am hearing now. Hypothetically lets say we trade Ingram and the #27 for PG13, that would still leave us with a projected lineup of:
PG Ball
SG Clarkson
SF PG13
PF Randle
C Lopez
6th Nance
7th Zubac
+ whatever the 28th pick may be, hoping it's a sharp shooter from 3. With Lopez and Zubac, Randle, Nance we would be set at Big's. Clarkson and Randle both are at the Good category, Clarky can give us 15 Points a game and Randle 15/10. Lopez is good for 17-20 Points and solid Defense, PG13 would be our SuperStar at only 27 - he will average 20 a game easily and can stretch the floor as he can hit the 3. He also is a solid Defender. Ball's potential is ridiculous, his court vision and ability to score has me intrigued. I think Zubac will be better too and Nance is a Good Role player IMO. Just breaking down this scenario for shits and giggles. Looking at those 7 players not 1 player is older than 29 either, Lopez just turned 29 in April. That is a real young core.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby Lakers4Life » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:22 pm

3Peatkb24 wrote:Pacers are wanting either the #2 or Ingram is what I am hearing now. Hypothetically lets say we trade Ingram and the #27 for PG13, that would still leave us with a projected lineup of:
PG Ball
SG Clarkson
SF PG13
PF Randle
C Lopez
6th Nance
7th Zubac
+ whatever the 28th pick may be, hoping it's a sharp shooter from 3. With Lopez and Zubac, Randle, Nance we would be set at Big's. Clarkson and Randle both are at the Good category, Clarky can give us 15 Points a game and Randle 15/10. Lopez is good for 17-20 Points and solid Defense, PG13 would be our SuperStar at only 27 - he will average 20 a game easily and can stretch the floor as he can hit the 3. He also is a solid Defender. Ball's potential is ridiculous, his court vision and ability to score has me intrigued. I think Zubac will be better too and Nance is a Good Role player IMO. Just breaking down this scenario for shits and giggles. Looking at those 7 players not 1 player is older than 29 either, Lopez just turned 29 in April. That is a real young core.


Would NOT give up Ball or Ingram. Anybody else is on the table
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby 3Peatkb24 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:33 pm

Lakers4Life wrote:
3Peatkb24 wrote:Pacers are wanting either the #2 or Ingram is what I am hearing now. Hypothetically lets say we trade Ingram and the #27 for PG13, that would still leave us with a projected lineup of:
PG Ball
SG Clarkson
SF PG13
PF Randle
C Lopez
6th Nance
7th Zubac
+ whatever the 28th pick may be, hoping it's a sharp shooter from 3. With Lopez and Zubac, Randle, Nance we would be set at Big's. Clarkson and Randle both are at the Good category, Clarky can give us 15 Points a game and Randle 15/10. Lopez is good for 17-20 Points and solid Defense, PG13 would be our SuperStar at only 27 - he will average 20 a game easily and can stretch the floor as he can hit the 3. He also is a solid Defender. Ball's potential is ridiculous, his court vision and ability to score has me intrigued. I think Zubac will be better too and Nance is a Good Role player IMO. Just breaking down this scenario for shits and giggles. Looking at those 7 players not 1 player is older than 29 either, Lopez just turned 29 in April. That is a real young core.


Would NOT give up Ball or Ingram. Anybody else is on the table


I agree but that is the latest I have heard. I want to keep Ingram as well. We aren't giving up the #2 now no matter what since we traded Russell. Cant do it because we need a PointG to replace him which Ball or Fox can do. Pacers should except the offer of Randle and Clarkson + #27, I think that is fair for both teams IMO because of the circumstance the Pacers are in. We are still giving up a lot too because both Clarky and Randle are Good players + that Draft pick may turn into to something Good as well.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby KobeMVP888 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:34 pm

3Peatkb24 wrote:Pacers are wanting either the #2 or Ingram is what I am hearing now. Hypothetically lets say we trade Ingram and the #27 for PG13, that would still leave us with a projected lineup of:
PG Ball
SG Clarkson
SF PG13
PF Randle
C Lopez
6th Nance
7th Zubac
+ whatever the 28th pick may be, hoping it's a sharp shooter from 3. With Lopez and Zubac, Randle, Nance we would be set at Big's. Clarkson and Randle both are at the Good category, Clarky can give us 15 Points a game and Randle 15/10. Lopez is good for 17-20 Points and solid Defense, PG13 would be our SuperStar at only 27 - he will average 20 a game easily and can stretch the floor as he can hit the 3. He also is a solid Defender. Ball's potential is ridiculous, his court vision and ability to score has me intrigued. I think Zubac will be better too and Nance is a Good Role player IMO. Just breaking down this scenario for shits and giggles. Looking at those 7 players not 1 player is older than 29 either, Lopez just turned 29 in April. That is a real young core.


No to Ingram or #2. No, no, no! I'd rather wait. The MOST I would offer is Clarkson, 27 and 28. Even that seems like too much. If that's on the table, I'd take one of those 2 draft picks off the table. Honestly.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby 3Peatkb24 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:55 pm

KobeMVP888 wrote:
3Peatkb24 wrote:Pacers are wanting either the #2 or Ingram is what I am hearing now. Hypothetically lets say we trade Ingram and the #27 for PG13, that would still leave us with a projected lineup of:
PG Ball
SG Clarkson
SF PG13
PF Randle
C Lopez
6th Nance
7th Zubac
+ whatever the 28th pick may be, hoping it's a sharp shooter from 3. With Lopez and Zubac, Randle, Nance we would be set at Big's. Clarkson and Randle both are at the Good category, Clarky can give us 15 Points a game and Randle 15/10. Lopez is good for 17-20 Points and solid Defense, PG13 would be our SuperStar at only 27 - he will average 20 a game easily and can stretch the floor as he can hit the 3. He also is a solid Defender. Ball's potential is ridiculous, his court vision and ability to score has me intrigued. I think Zubac will be better too and Nance is a Good Role player IMO. Just breaking down this scenario for shits and giggles. Looking at those 7 players not 1 player is older than 29 either, Lopez just turned 29 in April. That is a real young core.


No to Ingram or #2. No, no, no! I'd rather wait. The MOST I would offer is Clarkson, 27 and 28. Even that seems like too much. If that's on the table, I'd take one of those 2 draft picks off the table. Honestly.


I get all of that, I was just Posting what I have been hearing. I wouldn't give up Ingram either. I would give up Clarkson and Randle if I had too though just to make sure I land PG13. That still leaves us Ball/Ingram/PG13/Nance/Lopez/Zubac/ and who knows what Nick Young is going to do? We also have the 27 and 28 picks as of now so we have tons of options. Pacers are backed into a corner but you still have to look at both sides of a deal. In a perfect world of course it would be great if we could say - Here's Clarkson and the 27 :roflmao:.

-What if Boston offers the Pacers Bradley and Smart? Then PG13 goes there, they make the Finals and he wants to re-up with them for example. Then we lose. What if Griffin agrees to a sign and trade for PG13, PG13 goes there and he loves playing with CP3 + it's LA and re-up's there. Cant take that chance, we have a chance to get a Top 10-15 player in the league that is young and 100% healthy, cant fuck it up if we only have to give up 2 players that are Good = Clarkson and Randle or give up a late 1st Round pick.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby 3Peatkb24 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:30 pm

I wont be on until late tomorrow night, I have a big day at work tomorrow but I am off Thursday, cant wait for the Draft. Good night Brethren.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby KobeMVP888 » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:58 am



Sounds like a fluid situation to me. This is the Pacers playing hardball with the inexperienced Magic/Rob. Brian Windhorst is saying otherwise, claiming that teams are offering very little for PG and that a deal with the Lakers will happen between by tomorrow night. Frankly, I don't care either way. I would almost rather draft three solid young players and take it from there. A starting 5 of Lopez, Randle, Ingram, Clarkson and Ball has a lot of potential, especially now that Randle, Clarkson and Ingram have more experience now. A bench of Zubac, Nance, Nick Young (if he stays; we'll find out whether he opts in today), Brewer and maybe Black and Ennis (not to mention or two FA rentals this season) should be good for 35 wins. Lonzo Ball is a winner and believe it or not, Lopez is such an upgrade over Mozgov that he will more than make up for the loss of Russell, especially with Lonzo delivering the ball.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby lakerevolution » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:33 am

KobeMVP888 wrote:Sounds like a fluid situation to me. This is the Pacers playing hardball with the inexperienced Magic/Rob. Brian Windhorst is saying otherwise, claiming that teams are offering very little for PG and that a deal with the Lakers will happen between by tomorrow night. Frankly, I don't care either way. I would almost rather draft three solid young players and take it from there. A starting 5 of Lopez, Randle, Ingram, Clarkson and Ball has a lot of potential, especially now that Randle, Clarkson and Ingram have more experience now. A bench of Zubac, Nance, Nick Young (if he stays; we'll find out whether he opts in today), Brewer and maybe Black and Ennis (not to mention or two FA rentals this season) should be good for 35 wins. Lonzo Ball is a winner and believe it or not, Lopez is such an upgrade over Mozgov that he will more than make up for the loss of Russell, especially with Lonzo delivering the ball.


I agree. If we are to climb out of this post-Kobe hell-hole the NBA has shoveled upon us, we need to do it OUR way -- not joining in the slobbering bandwagon over the latest big name like these lesser franchises. Remember: We are The Lakers!! That still means something, and our True Fanhood is being tested again as it has been over the years. We are destined to be great again.
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Re: Paul George thread

Postby lakerevolution » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:35 am

Is there any past or current NBA player who DIDN'T want to be a Laker? Besides those Chowderfucks? If PG13 wants in, he'll make it happen. No matter what the deal.
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